Fubon Financial Holdings Today is the "2025 Fubon Financial Trend Forum". Chief Economics Scholar Rowe said that as Trump's policy promotion process and impact levels exceed market expectations, the United States has fallen into a resurgence of suspended inflation, the US exception has broken, and the US dollar may face evaluation adjustments. Trump's political changes have prompted European countries to strengthen themselves, and caused market doubts about the sustainability of US debt, leading to global capital transfer.
Roy said that the global financial market was shaking violently in the first half of 2025. The United States Federation of Trade decided to maintain the target area of the federal fund interest rate between 4.25 and 4.50%. In order to suspend interest rate cuts for the fourth consecutive meeting, it is expected that the mainland will continue to be transmitted to the consumer side in the next few months, and it is most appropriate to continue to hold on, but it implies that the cycle of interest rate cuts in this wave has narrowed from 9 to 8.
Roy pointed out that although the G10 central bank cut interest rates more than Fed, the US dollar's move is relatively weak due to global capital transfers. The three central banks of the United States, Europe and Japan have maintained a balance sheet policy. As the market investment atmosphere changes, long-term debt yields have risen, resulting in increased fluctuations in debt markets. The third quarter will be a key observation period for whether global political affairs can resolve.
Roy shared that key events include the subsequent development of the Israeli-Iran war; the US and governments trade debates, July 8 is the deadline for extra-economic taxes; the two U.S. parties are about to pass the Large and US bill, which will involve issues such as raising the U.S. debt ceiling and expanding the government's financial deficit; Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting and the September interest rate decision meeting.
Royal stressed that U.S. debt interest rate trends are limited by debt supply and investor confidence. If the attractiveness of US dollar assets decreases, long-term yield interest rates will face upward pressure, and credit spreads may expand. The US dollar index faces correction pressure due to policy and credit doubts. The Japanese may appreciate due to the withdrawal of arbitrage transactions, which will drive currency fluctuations in the new market.
Wu Wei, deputy general manager of Taipei Fubon Bank, said that in terms of industry selection, AI agents took over the sacred trend of technology, leading various industries to innovation. The era of AI interaction is just around the corner, and new business machines are limitless. As a key semiconductor that changes the world, due to the rapid development of AI, driving the demand for semiconductors, enterprises continue to pursue breakthroughs in computing power, low consumption, and high transmission technology, and investment is indispensable.
Wu Xu pointed out that AI agents have taken over and led to the wave of technology. AI agents are digital assistants who can "do things by themselves". They are not only "can talk", but also actively plan, execute, and adjust according to the situation, realizing the real "letting go". The application scenario includes 24-hour customer service, precise marketing, personal assistants, etc., and is regarded as a key year for AI agents to enter the mainstream market.
Wu shared the article that the first quarter of 2025 was subject to early pull-out and the continued rise in AI demand, which promoted the improvement of global semiconductor inventory. In the future, AI therefore needs more computing power to carry out a longer reasoning process. Judging from past experience, the development cycle of a scientific and technological technology is 10 to 15 years. Since its rise in 2023, AI development is still in its initial stage.
Wu Xu's text emphasized that with the global political movement and the political situation in the ground, the price of gold has continued to rise, and investment and technology use has increased. In the past, gold had an average increase of about 1,700 days for gold to reach $500 per ounce, but recently it has increased from $2,500 per ounce to $3,000 per ounce, only 210 days. As Trump's policy brings uncertainty, gold with value-preserving characteristics has become the first choice for investment.
Chen Yiguang, chairman of Fubon Investment, said that the Taiwan Stock Exchange's profit estimate this year is down to 4.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year. If the index wants to rise, the key is that electronics will first develop and finance will take over. After the tax crisis is lifted and global trade returns will return to normal, the industry will be low-profiles. The overall stock market will be on the seller after excluding the interest rate in the third quarter. The profitability of the industry will rise in the fourth quarter, and the high point will be 24,000.
In the Taiwan Stock Exchange's stock selection strategy, Chen Yiguang proposed that "Fukon ANGELS" can be adopted, targeting AI supply chains (AI demand, robots), Taiwan currency appreciation (aviation, travel, food and asset issues), policy promotion industry upgrades (unmanned machinery, electronic demand and clean carbon emissions), ETFs (high dividends, market capitalization, etc.), Low P/E (value investment), and Satellite (low satellite).
Chen Yiguang pointed out that by observing the "12 rate", it analyzes the market, including the "Fengqi Front" manufacturing purchasing manager index PMI estimates that it is difficult to regain the favorable value, and the expansion of the non-manufacturing purchasing manager index NMI in Taiwan; "Fengqi Middle" is the consumer price index CPI and the producer price index PPI, which has a stable index and a widening scissors gap, which is a tax dependent on the US inflation.
Overall, Chen Yiguang said that the reaction was impacted by tax and exchange rates in the same quarter. The profits of the Taiwan Stock Exchange exceeded expectations in the first quarter. Fubon once revised its profit estimate in 2025 to 4.74 trillion yuan. Starting from the second quarter, affected by Trump's tax war against tax, considering the effect of the tax war and adverse factors in the exchange, the profits of the Taiwan Stock Exchange were lowered to 4.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year..
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